Here, you can write about your target customers & market trends in your industry 🌱
Start with providing a detailed explanation about 👇
(1) Who are your target customers?
(2) How many customers are there in your target geography and market segment?
(3) How much money do they spend on similar products annually (market size)?
(4) How much will the market grow in the next 5 years?
You are encouraged to use information about changes in consumer behavior, emerging technologies, regulatory shifts, or market growth projections ☝️
There are three ways to size the market ✍️
1. BOTTOM-UP
Target market size equals (1) the number of potential customers, multiplied by (2) how many units of product they buy, multiplied by, (3) the average price per unit.
2. TOP-DOWN
You start with an estimate from a reputable source of the overall market size. Then you apply some filters based on your target customer, your offering, and geography to narrow it down to your specific, and more realistic, target market size.
3. COMPETITOR MARKET SHARE
Sum up the revenues of your main competitors which publicly publish their revenue numbers. Then estimate the total market share of these competitors. Market size equals (1) Total competitor revenue, divided by (2) their market share.
The best practice is to calculate the market share using all three approaches with the hope that you come to similar market share estimates ✔️
↪️This is called TRIANGULATION
If you come to similar market share estimates, you have a solid and defensible market size analysis. However, in most cases, you will not have enough information for all three approaches or you will come to very different numbers with each approach.
In this case, the Bottom-Up approach is best if your business is entering a new market or trying to replace an existing market with a very different solution than the current market offerings 🤝
- An example of this is Modeliks which offers a SaaS business planning tool when currently 98% of business plans are created in spreadsheets and word processing tools.
🍀The Top-Down and Competitor Market Share approaches are better if you are entering an established market with a similar solution to the existing market offerings.
- An example of this is a furniture manufacturer that still offers furniture like all other furniture manufacturers but with its signature design.